AZE.US
The United States and Iran appear closer to a temporary deal aimed at stopping the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and bringing part of Iranian oil back to global markets. But the agreement remains fragile, with major disputes still unresolved over Iran’s nuclear program, oil sanctions and Israel’s military presence in Lebanon.
According to Reuters, the Trump administration expects the agreement to be made public in the coming days. The proposed deal is expected to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and create a framework for further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the most urgent practical issue. The waterway is one of the world’s most important routes for oil shipments, and its closure sharply increased pressure on energy markets. Reuters and AP report that the planned deal would include steps to reopen the strait and restore freedom of navigation.
Oil markets have already reacted to hopes of de-escalation. Reuters reported that oil prices fell sharply as traders bet that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and that Iranian oil could return to the market. However, analysts warn that restoring normal flows may take time, even if the political agreement is signed.
Under the proposed arrangement, Tehran would be allowed to resume oil and fuel sales. Reuters reported that this would include sanctions waivers related to banking, transportation and insurance. But those benefits would depend on Iran meeting key conditions, including not developing nuclear weapons, addressing enriched nuclear material and ensuring safe maritime traffic through Hormuz.
Another major element under discussion is a private investment fund for Iran. Reuters reported that the framework includes a proposed $300 billion fund aimed at supporting sectors such as energy, logistics, manufacturing and transport. According to a source cited by the agency, more than half of the amount has already been committed by companies from several regions. The fund would only become active after a final agreement is reached.
But the most dangerous obstacle may be Israel and Lebanon. AP reported that Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said the deal to end the war with the United States should require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. Israel has rejected that condition.
This creates a serious risk for the entire process. If Tehran insists that Israel’s withdrawal must be part of the settlement, while Washington does not include such a demand in the agreement, the temporary deal could collapse before it becomes a lasting arrangement.
The issue is also politically sensitive inside the United States. Reuters reported that the U.S. Senate narrowly blocked another attempt to limit President Donald Trump’s war powers on Iran. The vote showed that even as the White House moves toward a deal, many lawmakers still want more details about the agreement and the administration’s military strategy.
For Azerbaijan and the wider Caspian region, the stakes are also significant. Any escalation around Iran, Hormuz and the Gulf can affect energy prices, shipping insurance, regional transport routes and investor sentiment across the broader neighborhood.
For now, the deal looks less like a final peace agreement and more like a pause in a dangerous conflict. Hormuz, oil sanctions, Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s position in Lebanon remain the main points that could either keep the process alive or push the region back toward escalation.
AZE.US