AZE.US
Azerbaijani political analyst Rizvan Huseynov says Azerbaijan and Turkey have reshaped the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus and the wider Caspian region, creating new realities that Iran can no longer ignore.
Speaking on the YouTube channel News of the Caucasus, Huseynov said the region is moving into a new phase in which old Iranian approaches, especially those based on ideological pressure, proxy networks and confrontation with Azerbaijan, are losing effectiveness.
According to him, the changes that followed the 44-day war, the strengthening of Azerbaijan’s regional position and Turkey’s growing role have forced Tehran to adapt.
“The new Iranian authorities have accepted the regional realities created by Azerbaijan and Turkey and are ready to work with them,” Huseynov said.
He argued that Iran’s previous policy toward Azerbaijan was shaped by forces that openly opposed Baku’s interests, supported Armenia during the occupation of Azerbaijani territories and worked closely with Russia against Azerbaijan. That policy, he said, pushed Azerbaijan to respond asymmetrically, including by supporting the growth of national awareness among Azerbaijanis in Iran.
Huseynov believes that the situation may now be changing. He said the influence of the old Iranian ideological establishment has weakened, while the role of Tabriz as an economic and transit center is growing.
“Tabriz has always been a gateway to the Middle East and into Iran. If Tabriz strengthens, this means stronger trade, transit and economic ties with Azerbaijan,” he said.
The analyst linked this shift to a broader internal struggle in Iran. In his view, one camp is trying to preserve the old model built around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and control over energy routes in the Persian Gulf. Another camp, associated with President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Tabriz economic sphere, is more interested in trade, transport corridors and relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Huseynov said the future of Iran’s regional policy will depend on which of these groups gains the upper hand.
“If Pezeshkian’s team prevails, it will lead to a renaissance in Azerbaijan-Iran relations,” he said.
The analyst also said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had previously tried to influence Azerbaijan through religious and radical networks. He recalled Iran’s military pressure near the Azerbaijani border after the 2020 war, saying that the deployment near the Araz River in 2021 failed to change the new geopolitical reality.
“That was the peak of what the IRGC generals could do, and that line failed,” Huseynov said.
He argued that Azerbaijan is now becoming one of the key drivers of a new regional architecture connecting Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkey, Europe and the Middle East. In this context, he pointed to the emerging “Central Asia plus Azerbaijan” format and broader transit projects that may eventually link the Caspian region with the Black Sea, Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean.
According to Huseynov, Iran could also become part of this new architecture if it strengthens the Tabriz route and focuses on economic integration rather than ideological confrontation.
He also commented on the recent visit of Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to the president of Azerbaijan, to Armenia, where he met with Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan in Dilijan. Huseynov described the visit as politically significant and said it may signal a new stage in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations.
He said that while previous contacts were largely focused on technical and economic issues, Hajiyev’s visit carried a broader political message.
“We are on the threshold of a new stage in Azerbaijani-Armenian relations,” Huseynov said.
The analyst added that even if political processes in Armenia move slowly, economic and transit cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia is likely to continue expanding.
Huseynov said the success of these regional projects will also depend on the creation of a shared expert and information space between Central Asia, Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus.
Without stable communication between experts, media and societies, he said, major regional initiatives will not be able to work at full capacity.
AZE.US