AZE.US
The continuing expansion of military tensions surrounding Russia and Iran could bring new security risks closer to the Caspian region, Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov has warned.
Speaking on the YouTube channel Novosti Kavkaza, Mammadov said military activity has already spread across the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, while the northern Caspian could eventually become another vulnerable area.
“After the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, the northern part of the Caspian may be next,” he said.
Mammadov stressed that this was his own assessment of how the conflict could develop, not information about any planned military operation.
Russian Infrastructure Could Face Greater Risks
According to the analyst, potential targets in the Caspian region could include Russian military facilities and energy infrastructure.
He argued that the geography of the Russia-Ukraine war has continued to expand as Ukraine increases pressure on strategically important Russian sites.
Mammadov predicted that military activity could intensify during August and September as the United States adds further instruments of pressure on Moscow.
His remarks reflect broader concerns that infrastructure far from the original front line can become vulnerable as the range and frequency of strikes increase.
Tensions Are Also Rising South of Azerbaijan
Mammadov said Azerbaijan must also pay attention to developments along its southern borders.
Although the current confrontation involving Iran remains largely concentrated around the Persian Gulf coast and U.S. military facilities in the region, he said further escalation could spread to other parts of Iran.
The analyst did not rule out additional targeted strikes deeper inside the country if tensions continue to rise.
He suggested that the combination of instability to Azerbaijan’s north and south could create a more difficult regional security environment.
Azerbaijan’s Stability Is Not Guaranteed
Mammadov said Azerbaijan’s relative stability should not be regarded as automatic or permanent, given its location between several potential zones of confrontation.
“The stability and calm that exist in Azerbaijan are not the norm. They are the result of extraordinary work,” he said.
The analyst urged the public to recognize the country’s geographical position and the challenging conditions under which Azerbaijani institutions must operate.
In his assessment, the Caspian Sea could acquire greater significance not only as an energy and transportation hub, but also as a potential zone of military tension if the conflicts around Russia and Iran continue to expand.
AZE.US