AZE.US
Azerbaijan is entering a four-month period of strategic waiting as uncertainty grows across several international disputes affecting the South Caucasus, according to Farhad Mammadov, chairman of the Center for South Caucasus Studies.
Mammadov said Azerbaijani diplomacy has remained in a wait-and-see mode over the past several weeks and argued that Baku is currently in a strong enough position to avoid rushing into major foreign policy decisions.
He said Azerbaijan’s primary bilateral alliance obligations are to Turkey and are being fully honored. As an example, he cited the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s reaction to the Israeli government’s recognition of the Armenian genocide.
According to Mammadov, July, August, September and part of October will be marked by uncertainty and turbulence across several fronts.
Iran to Remain a Source of Uncertainty
Mammadov expects tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran to continue.
He argued that Israel and some political and military groups within Iran are not interested in establishing a new and stable system of relations.
Any agreements reached in Tehran currently depend heavily on individual political figures, including the president and parliament speaker, while the military remains largely outside the process, he said.
Mammadov also pointed to questions surrounding the condition and political position of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Internal divisions could deepen if uncertainty over his ability to govern continues, he added.
The situation is unlikely to become clearer before elections in Israel and the U.S. congressional elections, according to the analyst.
Russia-Ukraine Escalation Expected to Grow
Mammadov also predicted that the war between Russia and Ukraine would intensify.
Moscow and Kyiv are both waiting for renewed U.S. involvement, which he said could come in August or September. Until then, both sides are likely to focus on strengthening their positions ahead of any future negotiations.
Israel-Turkey Tensions Pose the Greatest Risk
The relationship between Israel and Turkey may become the most dangerous international issue for Azerbaijan, Mammadov said.
He argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government needs an external adversary to strengthen its position ahead of parliamentary elections.
If agreements between Washington and Israel restrict further strikes against Iran and contain military activity in Lebanon, Israeli authorities could intensify operations in Gaza or deliberately escalate tensions with Turkey in Syria, he said.
“This is possibly the most dangerous case for Azerbaijan, as escalation would not serve the interests of either Baku or Washington,” Mammadov said.
Moscow May Increase Pressure on Armenia
Russia is also likely to increase pressure on Armenia and test the resilience of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government over the coming months, according to Mammadov.
The struggle over strategic assets, including the South Caucasus Railway and the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, is approaching a critical stage.
Mammadov warned that decisions by the Armenian government could prompt Moscow to take measures aimed at destabilizing the country’s economy.
One possible step could involve restrictions on bank transfers from Russia to Armenia. Mammadov said the value of such transfers reached $3.8 billion last year.
Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Process Will Take Time
Mammadov said rapid progress should not be expected in the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Armenia’s new National Assembly and government must first be formed and approve a government program. A clearer understanding of Yerevan’s position may emerge only by September, he said.
For Azerbaijan, the main issues include Armenia’s possible constitutional referendum and decisions related to the implementation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP.
These processes are expected to take several months. During this period, both sides are likely to continue declaring their commitment to peace and may reach additional practical agreements similar to cooperation on internet connectivity with Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave.
Baku Can Strengthen Its Position
Mammadov said Azerbaijan should use the next four months to strengthen its domestic political, economic and organizational foundations.
The regional picture may become clearer in late autumn or early winter 2026, following elections in Israel, the U.S. congressional elections, decisions by the Armenian government on the referendum and TRIPP, and another possible round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
In the meantime, Azerbaijan can deepen its alliances with Turkey, Georgia and Central Asian states, expand partnerships with Gulf countries and China, seek the repeal of Section 907 in the U.S. Congress and pursue new agreements with the European Union.
“By the end of the year, a new situation should emerge across almost all the external issues affecting our region,” Mammadov said. “Azerbaijan will then have to shape and clearly formulate its position.”
AZE.US