AZE.US
Azerbaijan is trying to maintain a delicate balance among several competing regional powers as tensions around Iran, Russia, Turkey and Israel continue to reshape the South Caucasus, political analyst Elxan Shahinoglu said.
Speaking about the growing instability around Azerbaijan, Shahinoglu said the country remains exposed to pressure from both the north and the south, but has so far managed to shield itself from the most dangerous consequences through careful foreign policy.
He argued that Baku’s approach toward Iran has been largely correct. According to him, Azerbaijan made clear during the recent escalation that it would not allow its territory to be used against neighboring states, including Iran.
Shahinoglu said repeated claims from Iranian military circles that Israel allegedly maintains bases or operational infrastructure in Azerbaijan were never backed by evidence. He noted that during the wartime period no facts emerged to support those accusations.
In his view, Azerbaijan gave Tehran no legitimate reason to accuse it of direct involvement. At the same time, Baku avoided crossing into open confrontation. Despite harsh public rhetoric from President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan later demonstrated that it was not interested in escalation by extending humanitarian gestures toward Iran.
That combination of firmness and restraint, Shahinoglu suggested, may have forced Tehran to soften its tone, at least to some extent.
He also pointed to the need to reduce tensions in relations with Russia. While serious questions remain between the two countries, Shahinoglu said continued dialogue is necessary to prevent the relationship from sliding deeper into confrontation.
Another issue causing concern for Baku, he said, is the possibility of deeper friction between Turkey and Israel. Azerbaijan has a strategic alliance with Turkey, while also maintaining important ties with Israel. Any further deterioration between those two partners would create a more difficult balancing act for Azerbaijani diplomacy.
Shahinoglu warned that if war between the United States and Iran resumes, Azerbaijan could again face serious fallout. One of the main risks, he said, would be disruption to transit and logistics, especially along the North-South transport corridor. Even so, he added that Azerbaijan has alternative routes that could soften part of the impact.
He also argued that China is becoming increasingly important in this geopolitical environment. Unlike Russia and the United States, which he described as being tied to war and confrontation, China is focused on economic expansion and trade influence.
That shift, Shahinoglu said, raises Azerbaijan’s value as a transit state. He linked this to China’s broader Belt and Road ambitions and the growing relevance of transport links running through Azerbaijani territory, particularly the Middle Corridor.
His broader conclusion was that Azerbaijan is trying to protect itself by pursuing a flexible and pragmatic policy between rival power centers. But if a wider war around Iran breaks out again, pressure on the region and on Azerbaijan’s transport role is likely to grow.
AZE.US