AZE.US
Rising global prices for grain, sugar and vegetable oils could push up food costs in Azerbaijan within the next three to six months, economists have warned.
Economist Natig Jafarli told Demokrat.az that Azerbaijan remains highly dependent on foreign markets for its food supply.
As a result, increases in global commodity prices affect both imported goods and locally manufactured products that rely on foreign raw materials or components.
Flour and bakery products, confectionery, sugar, vegetable oils and other staple foods are expected to face the greatest pressure.
Jafarli said the impact of imported inflation was already visible in official data, with food inflation approaching 7%.
The timing and scale of further price increases will depend on existing inventories, supply chains, transportation costs and exchange rates.
Economist Khalid Kerimli said global food prices had already risen compared with the previous two years. Citing international food price data, he said the index currently stood at 131 points, compared with an average of 122 in 2024 and 127 in 2025. It nevertheless remains below the peaks recorded in 2022 and 2023, when the index exceeded 140.
Kerimli attributed the increase to higher energy and transportation costs, as well as disruptions and security risks in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
He said changes in international prices typically take three to six months to reach Azerbaijani consumers because goods already in transit and existing warehouse stocks delay the impact.
Exchange-rate movements in Turkey, Russia and Europe – Azerbaijan’s main food suppliers – could also influence import costs.
Both economists said expanding domestic agricultural production and strengthening food security would help reduce Azerbaijan’s exposure to future price shocks.
AZE.US