By AZE.US
Russia will seek to retain control over strategic assets in Armenia, but Iran may pose the greatest potential obstacle to the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov said in an interview with the News of the Caucasus YouTube channel.
According to Mammadov, the pace of the U.S. administration’s work indicates that Washington remains committed to the transportation project through Armenia.
Although the Armenian section is only about 44 kilometers long, the United States views it as part of a broader geo-economic network connecting the South Caucasus with Central Asia, he said.
“The United States is taking this project seriously and formalizing its participation. There is less geopolitics here and more geo-economics,” Mammadov said.
In his assessment, Washington is not demanding that Azerbaijan or Armenia alter their foreign policy orientation, nor is it making participation in the project conditional on anti-Russian rhetoric. Instead, the U.S. is concentrating on specific investment, transportation and trade opportunities.
Moscow to Defend Its Position in Armenia
Mammadov said Russia has begun to recognize the scale of the changes taking place in the South Caucasus and is now looking for ways to preserve its role in regional projects.
He identified several key issues in Russian-Armenian relations:
- The future of Russia’s military base in Gyumri;
- The presence of Russian border guards along Armenia’s borders with Iran and Turkey;
- The future of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant;
- Control of the South Caucasus Railway.
The fiercest competition is likely to center on railway infrastructure, according to the analyst. Russia wants to retain its concession to operate Armenia’s railways and may seek indirect involvement in transportation projects connected to TRIPP.
“Russia will defend its position on the railways to the end. This is about maintaining a strategic asset on Armenian territory,” Mammadov said.
However, he argued that Moscow does not have the ability to directly block construction of the route itself.
“Russia can create problems on other sections of Armenia’s railway network, but not along the TRIPP route, because Azerbaijan is located on both sides of it,” he said.
Iran Seen as the Main Source of Risk
Mammadov believes Tehran has greater capacity than Moscow to complicate implementation of the project.
“Iran is a greater potential obstacle to TRIPP than Russia. I believe we have yet to see the full extent of Iranian activity surrounding this project,” he said.
The dispute, he added, is primarily an Armenian-Iranian issue. Yerevan will have to convince Tehran that the transportation route and potential U.S. involvement will not threaten Iranian security.
At the same time, Mammadov said it was premature to declare the beginning of a fundamentally new chapter in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations.
Iran’s president and part of the country’s political establishment have demonstrated an interest in improving relations with Baku, he said. However, uncertainty remains within Iran’s governing system, while the influence of military institutions has increased.
Mammadov nevertheless sees prospects for gradual improvement if Iran’s elected government can strengthen its position and adapt to the new political realities of the South Caucasus.
First Azerbaijan-Armenia Business Deals
Commenting on the beginning of direct commercial contacts between Azerbaijani and Armenian businesses, Mammadov described the development as an expected but still preliminary step.
After three decades of conflict, the two societies have learned to live separately and continue to view one another with considerable mistrust. For that reason, he does not expect Azerbaijani products to appear widely in Armenian supermarkets – or Armenian goods in stores in Baku – in the immediate future.
Initial trade is more likely to involve raw materials, industrial supplies and products intended for further processing rather than consumer goods, according to the analyst.
“There can be no coercion. If certain products are needed and are produced in a neighboring country, establishing the necessary logistics will allow trade to grow gradually,” Mammadov said.
He added that the prospects for bilateral commerce can be assessed more accurately once official customs figures reveal the types, volumes and value of the goods being traded.
Armenian Referendum Could Affect Peace Treaty
Mammadov also addressed plans for a possible new Armenian constitution. He described the process as an internal Armenian matter that could nevertheless affect the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.
A draft of the proposed constitution has not yet been published. It is expected to undergo expert and public discussion before potentially being submitted to a referendum.
According to Mammadov, international actors seeking the rapid conclusion of an Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement should support the Armenian government in implementing its declared constitutional reform program.
The analyst said one of the most important recent developments was that Baku and Yerevan were conducting the peace process directly, without outside mediators. This limits the ability of external powers to manipulate regional tensions or use one South Caucasus country against another.
“Competition among Russia, the United States, the European Union, Turkey and Iran in the South Caucasus will always exist,” Mammadov said.
“The main task for the countries of the region is to prevent that competition from turning into conflict.”
AZE.US