Processing raw materials from Central Asia in Azerbaijan could add $10 billion to $15 billion or more to the country’s economy each year, according to an estimate by investment firm Apollo. The figure is not an approved government forecast.
Jonathan Barr, an Apollo managing director specializing in credit and structured finance, outlined the potential at the Second Azerbaijan International Investment Forum, AIIF 2026, according to Vesti Baku.
Barr said Azerbaijan would earn only transportation fees if it limited its role to serving as a transit route. Much greater value could be created by processing raw materials from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in Baku and surrounding areas before exporting finished products to Western markets.
Long-Term Capital
He compared the potential scale of such an industrial project with the economic impact of developing gas fields three decades ago. Apollo is interested in participating in and providing long-term financing for such facilities, he said, adding that the company’s investment horizon is 20 to 30 years.
The estimate assumes that new processing infrastructure would be built and substantial investment attracted. No specific projects, investment amounts or implementation dates were announced at the forum.
Transit Volumes Are Already Rising
At the same event, Deputy Digital Development and Transport Minister Rahman Hummatov said total transit cargo through Azerbaijan was forecast to exceed 16 million metric tons in 2026, nearly three times the 2019 level.
About 5.5 million tons is expected to move through the Middle Corridor, while the number of regular container trains arriving from China could approach 600.
The economic question, officials and investors said, is therefore not only how much cargo crosses Azerbaijan, but how much value the country can create domestically.