Higher energy prices increased Azerbaijan’s net export income by an amount equal to 3.9% of gross domestic product, while Azeri Light crude rose to $121.43 a barrel, according to a September review by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Azeri Light gained $4.69, or 3.13%, in the latest trading, while November Brent futures were quoted at $119.43 a barrel.
The EBRD said hydrocarbon exporters including Azerbaijan had strengthened their positions as prices rose on global commodity markets.
Impact of Higher Prices
ING estimated that every sustained $10 increase in oil prices could add about $3 billion a year to Azerbaijan’s export income and about $1.5 billion to government energy revenue, equivalent to roughly 4% and 2% of GDP, respectively, according to Report.
Economic Forecasts
The EBRD kept its growth forecast for Azerbaijan at 2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. It said the economy had returned to moderate growth after slowing early in the year, led by non-oil sectors, though the outlook remains sensitive to hydrocarbon prices and production volumes.
The bank linked further opportunities to progress toward peace with Armenia, new regional transport links and large renewable-energy investments.
Other forecasts differ. The Economy Ministry expects growth of 1.7% in 2026, the Central Bank 0.5%, the Asian Development Bank 1.6% and the United Nations 2.7%.
Source: Vesti Baku.