AZE.US
Russia was named the leading foreign policy threat to Azerbaijan in an online poll published by the Telegram channel Caucasian Live, a result that points to a visible shift in the mood of Azerbaijan’s politically active online audience.
The poll asked participants which country they believed created the greatest foreign political threat for Azerbaijan.
According to the published results, 1,000 people took part. Russia received 563 votes, or 56%, putting it far ahead of every other option. The result was larger than the combined total for all other countries and choices listed in the poll.
Iran came second with 128 votes, or 13%. Armenia received 60 votes, the United States 56, and 57 respondents said they had no opinion. Turkey was named by 39 participants, France by 37, and the European Union by 31. Georgia and China received four votes each.
The poll is not a nationwide sociological survey and should not be treated as representative of Azerbaijan’s population as a whole. It reflects the views of respondents within the audience of one Telegram channel.
Still, the result is politically notable.
The striking point is not only that Russia came first. It is the size of the gap. Iran, long seen as one of the most sensitive external factors for Baku, received nearly four times fewer votes. Armenia, despite decades of conflict and the still-unfinished peace process, stood at just 6%.
That suggests a change in how threats are being perceived among part of Azerbaijan’s politically engaged online audience. For some, the primary concern is no longer Yerevan or Tehran, but Moscow – a power still capable of influencing security dynamics, the information space and the broader balance of power in the South Caucasus.
The Western bloc did not emerge as the central concern. The United States, France and the European Union together received 13%, the same share as Iran alone and far below Russia’s figure.
Turkey’s low number was also unsurprising. In Azerbaijan’s public perception, Turkey remains more closely associated with alliance and strategic partnership than with threat. Georgia was barely viewed as a political risk, while China, despite its expanding economic footprint across the region, has not yet become a major source of public anxiety in this audience.
The Caucasian Live poll matters less as a final measure of national opinion than as a symptom of the post-Karabakh period. After the 2020 war, Azerbaijan’s restoration of control over Karabakh and the departure of Russian peacekeepers, the old map of perceived threats has changed.
For a significant part of this politically engaged audience, the central question is no longer limited to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. It is about who can still pressure the South Caucasus, shape the regional environment and try to preserve older spheres of influence.
In this poll, the answer was clear: Russia.
AZE.US