By AZE.US Editorial Team
The European Union appears eager to present Armenia as its new success story in the South Caucasus. Brussels wants to show that Yerevan is moving away from Moscow, that Europe is gaining ground, and that Russia is losing its old grip on the region.
That may sound convincing in European political language. But on the ground, the picture is far more complicated.
Yes, the EU’s growing presence in Armenia is a political signal. It shows support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his attempt to deepen ties with the West. For Brussels, it is also a chance to claim that Europe can now compete with Russia in a region where Moscow once dominated.
But influence is not measured only by visits, statements and photo opportunities.
Russia has lost its monopoly in the South Caucasus. That is clear. The region changed after the 2020 war, and Moscow can no longer act as the only power broker. But losing a monopoly is not the same as losing influence. Russia still has deep political, economic and security ties in Armenia. It still has leverage. It still has networks. And Armenia’s formal membership in Russia-led structures has not disappeared.
So the claim that the EU has “defeated” Russia in Armenia is premature. It is more of a headline than a strategic reality.
The bigger problem is the EU’s approach to the wider region.
Brussels speaks about transport connectivity, the Global Gateway initiative and the Trans-Caspian route. It talks about linking Europe with Central Asia through the Black Sea, the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. It talks about billions in investment, secure trade routes, access to markets and critical resources.
But there is one obvious question: how can anyone seriously discuss a Trans-Caspian route while ignoring Azerbaijan?
Azerbaijan is not a decorative point on a map. It is the central link between Central Asia and Europe in this corridor. Cargo flows from the Caspian to the West pass through Azerbaijani ports, railways and logistics infrastructure. Without Baku, the route becomes a presentation, not a corridor.
This is where Brussels keeps making the same mistake. The EU wants Azerbaijan’s geography, energy and infrastructure, but too often fails to treat Azerbaijan as a political partner with its own interests and expectations.
Europe needs Azerbaijan for energy security. It needs Azerbaijan for transit. It needs Azerbaijan for access to Central Asia. It needs Azerbaijan if it wants any serious East-West connectivity project to work.
Yet parts of the European political establishment continue to speak to Baku through resolutions, criticism and pressure, while offering far less when the conversation turns to investment, reconstruction or equal partnership.
That approach is not sustainable.
If the EU wants to be a serious player in the South Caucasus, it must move from political messaging to infrastructure logic. Corridors are not built by declarations. They are built through ports, railways, customs systems, financing, security guarantees and trust.
And trust cannot be built if one country is treated as a strategic partner while another is treated as a technical transit zone.
The EU has every right to strengthen relations with Armenia. Armenia has every right to seek closer ties with Europe. But if Brussels believes it can design the future of the South Caucasus while sidelining Azerbaijan, it is misreading the region.
Today, the key decisions in the South Caucasus are shaped not only in Brussels or Moscow, but also in Baku, Ankara and Tbilisi. Azerbaijan and Turkey are among the main actors defining the post-war regional order. Georgia also remains essential for any serious connectivity project.
The EU can be an important partner. But it cannot become the architect of the South Caucasus while ignoring the load-bearing walls of that architecture.
Russia has not fully lost Armenia. The EU has not fully won it. And Azerbaijan is not a country that can simply be placed on a map and left out of the room.
If Brussels wants real connectivity, it must speak seriously with Baku. Otherwise, Europe will keep producing impressive regional strategies that collapse the moment they meet geography.
AZE.US