AZE.US
Russia has lost one of its most important tools of influence in the South Caucasus after Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity and Baku and Yerevan moved toward a peace agreement, according to Farid Shafiyev, head of the AIR Center.
Speaking on the Novosti Kavkaza channel, Shafiyev said Moscow had long used the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as leverage over both countries.
“Russia had an instrument in the form of the Karabakh conflict,” he said. “Moscow was deprived of that instrument when Azerbaijan restored its territories and the peace process began.”
Shafiyev argued that Russia’s war against Ukraine has also weakened Moscow’s resources and reduced its ability to shape developments in the South Caucasus.
With its influence declining in Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia is now focusing more heavily on Georgia, he said.
Shafiyev pointed to renewed discussions surrounding Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as Russian calls for agreements on the non-use of force.
He said it was unlikely that Tbilisi would accept any arrangement that could be interpreted as recognition of the loss of Georgia’s occupied territories.
“It is better for everything to remain as it is than to sign a verdict on territorial integrity,” Shafiyev said. “No matter who has controlled these territories for 30 or 40 years, legally they remain part of Georgia.”
He added that reopening railway links through Abkhazia could only become realistic if Georgia were not required to recognize the separatist territory or sign politically unacceptable agreements.
A broader transport route across the South Caucasus would also require the involvement of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Turkey, he said.
Shafiyev described Russia’s regional policy as increasingly based on pressure and threats, but said this approach was producing the opposite result.
He cited Moscow’s pressure on Armenia, the deterioration of Russia-Azerbaijan relations following the AZAL plane crash, attacks on SOCAR facilities in Ukraine and information campaigns targeting Azerbaijan.
According to Shafiyev, such actions are not strengthening Russia’s position. Instead, they are deepening mistrust and encouraging countries in the region to take countermeasures.
He also said Russian-backed political projects in Armenia had failed following the country’s elections, although Moscow could still attempt to pressure Yerevan through trade and economic restrictions.
AZE.US