AZE.US
Tatar political analyst Ruslan Aysin said Azerbaijan’s recent standoff with Moscow sent an important signal to Russia’s ethnic republics, including regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Dagestan and others.
Speaking on the Novosti Kavkaza YouTube channel, Aysin said Baku demonstrated that Moscow behaves differently when it faces a state that is ready to defend its sovereignty and does not retreat under pressure.
“When Azerbaijan took the right stance and responded to Russia, when it did not bend, Moscow was frightened. Moscow did not understand how this could happen,” Aysin said.
According to him, ethnic republics inside the Russian Federation closely watched the tensions between Moscow and Baku. Aysin argued that the episode exposed the limits of Russia’s pressure tactics.
“They thought everything could be controlled through fear. But it does not work that way. It turned out that Moscow has no real levers,” he said.
Aysin said the Russian authorities view ethnic republics not as real federal subjects, but as sources of resources, manpower and political obedience. In his view, if Moscow had enough strength, it would try to remove the republic model altogether.
“Ethnic republics inside the Russian Federation are a disturbing phenomenon for Moscow. If Moscow had enough strength, it would liquidate them,” he said.
The analyst focused in particular on Tatarstan, saying Kazan has gradually lost much of its political autonomy. He pointed to pressure on the Tatar language, the weakening of regional powers and the dismantling of earlier elements of federalism.
For Aysin, 2017 became a turning point. That year, Moscow did not extend the power-sharing treaty with Tatarstan, while pressure on national-language education increased.
“For me, 2017 was a milestone. The Tatar language was effectively removed, Moscow did not extend the treaty on the division of powers, and Tatarstan’s independent financial system was dismantled,” he said.
Aysin argued that Russia’s policy toward national languages and regional identities is not accidental, but part of a long-term assimilation strategy.
“If we compare the 2010 census with the latest one, the number of people who know the Tatar language has fallen by about one million. Not because Tatars are lazy or do not want to learn their native language, but because there is nowhere to study it,” he said.
According to Aysin, the Russian Federation has effectively turned into a unitary state where regions have little real autonomy, while Moscow takes their resources, people and decision-making power.
“In reality, there is one monster that takes all our money, all our resources, wages wars and does whatever it wants. The regions are simply suppliers of resources and manpower,” he said.
In this context, Aysin said Azerbaijan’s example was especially important. He argued that Baku showed Russia’s ethnic republics that Moscow behaves differently when it faces resistance rather than submission.
“Moscow speaks differently only with those who are capable of responding,” Aysin said.
AZE.US