By AZE.US
The TRIPP transport route could reshape the South Caucasus by connecting Central Asia and the Caspian region with Turkey and Europe while reducing Armenia’s dependence on Russia, Azerbaijani analyst Rizvan Huseynov said.
Huseynov, a historian and political analyst, made the remarks during the “Geopolitics of the Caucasus” program on the Novosti Kavkaza YouTube channel.
The discussion came as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Baku, with the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, Turkey-Armenia normalization and regional transport links on the agenda.
Huseynov said the latest diplomatic activity suggested that Azerbaijan and Turkey were preparing to move the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, from political agreements to implementation.
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, he argued, have an interest in giving the project a legal and institutional foundation that would allow it to advance regardless of political developments in Washington.
“What interests me is the first excavator taking the first scoop of earth,” Huseynov said. “That is when the work will truly begin.”
The project is not limited to a roughly 40-kilometer section across Armenia’s Syunik region. If completed, it could facilitate the reopening of other routes linking Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey and form part of a wider trade network stretching from Central Asia to Europe.
Progress on border delimitation between Azerbaijan and Armenia could also determine how quickly those connections are restored. The two countries are now discussing areas where questions of security, transport infrastructure and former enclaves overlap.
One strategically important section lies near the borders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Gas infrastructure that once supplied Azerbaijani fuel to Armenia during the Soviet period also runs through this area.
According to Huseynov, restoring several sections of the pipeline could eventually allow Azerbaijan to resume direct gas deliveries to Armenia.
Such an arrangement would give Yerevan an alternative source of energy and reduce its heavy reliance on Russian gas. For Baku, it would create a new export market and add an economic component to the peace process.
No formal agreement on gas supplies has been announced, however. Any deliveries would require political decisions, commercial contracts and the reconstruction of infrastructure.
Huseynov argued that Russia had largely missed its opportunity to join the emerging transport system because Moscow’s political and economic resources were focused on the war in Ukraine.
In his assessment, projects connecting the Caspian region, the South Caucasus and Turkey are increasingly developing without direct Russian participation. This does not mean Russia will disappear from the region, but its ability to set the rules has diminished.
Armenia, Huseynov said, now faces two broad scenarios.
Under the first, Yerevan delays the necessary legal and political decisions and retains its current transport model. Armenia would not be completely isolated because it would continue to have access through Georgia and Iran, but major east-west trade flows could bypass the country.
Under the second scenario, Armenia joins TRIPP and participates in the reopening of additional routes with Azerbaijan and Turkey. It could then move from being the endpoint of regional roads to becoming a transit hub between Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and Europe.
“Participation gives a country a voice and an opportunity to defend its interests,” Huseynov said. “If it remains outside, it can only watch others determine the routes.”
Iran could also benefit from the new transport architecture despite concerns among some officials in Tehran that TRIPP would strengthen Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The proposed Araz Corridor through Iran would provide an alternative connection between Azerbaijan’s mainland territory and Nakhchivan. Other routes could link the Iranian border with highways through Zangilan, Gubadli and Kalbajar before continuing toward western Azerbaijan, Georgia and Black Sea ports. A separate connection toward Tabriz has also been discussed.
Huseynov therefore rejected the view that the simplified Norduz-Meghri customs corridor should be treated as a rival to TRIPP.
The routes could complement one another, he said, increasing the volume of regional freight and giving neighboring countries a greater economic interest in maintaining stability.
The future of the former enclaves remains another sensitive part of the Azerbaijan-Armenia settlement.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has acknowledged that Karki and other former Azerbaijani enclaves are not within Armenia’s internationally recognized borders, while Artsvashen – known in Azerbaijan as Bashkend – is part of Armenia.
Karki is particularly important because of its location near a major highway connecting Yerevan with southern Armenia. Resolving its status would therefore require more than a formal border decision. The parties would also need arrangements ensuring safe and uninterrupted travel.
Huseynov said the enclave issue should be settled as part of a broader package designed to prevent new points of confrontation.
The competition surrounding TRIPP is ultimately about more than a single road. It concerns the future direction of trade across the South Caucasus.
If the route is completed, Azerbaijan would reinforce its position as a regional transit center, Turkey would expand its direct access to the Caspian region, and Armenia could begin earning from its geographic position between East and West rather than remaining dependent on a limited number of external partners.
AZE.US