Azerbaijan expects national oil and marketable-gas production to decline further through 2028 before gas output partially recovers, according to forecasts in the proposed 2027 state budget package.
The figures remain projections while the budget is under parliamentary review, Vesti Baku reported.
Oil production is forecast at 26.6 million metric tons in 2027, down from an expected 26.8 million tons in 2026. Marketable-gas output is projected to fall to 35.6 billion cubic meters from 37.8 billion cubic meters.
Production Low Point Expected in 2028
The medium-term forecast puts oil output at 26.1 million tons and marketable-gas production at 33.2 billion cubic meters in 2028, the lowest levels in the projection period.
Oil production is then forecast to rise to 26.6 million tons in 2029 before easing to 26.3 million tons in 2030. Marketable-gas output is expected to recover to 35.3 billion cubic meters in 2029 and 36.6 billion cubic meters in 2030.
For comparison, Azerbaijan produced 29.1 million tons of oil and 38.6 billion cubic meters of marketable gas in 2024. In 2025, the figures were 27.7 million tons and 38.9 billion cubic meters, respectively.
ACG Output Seen at 316,400 Barrels a Day
Average oil production from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli block is forecast at 316,400 barrels per day in 2027, according to Report. That is 1,700 barrels, or 0.5%, below the forecast for 2026.
During the first nine months of 2026, ACG production averaged about 320,000 barrels per day and totaled roughly 87 million barrels, or 12 million metric tons.
ACG profit-tax payments to the state budget are projected at 320 million manats, about $188.2 million, in 2027. That is 20 million manats, or about $11.8 million, above the current forecast, an increase of 6.7%.
SOCAR Gas Output Forecast to Rise
A separate forecast for SOCAR and its subsidiaries projects gas production will increase by 239.2 million cubic meters, or 1.5%, to 16.3 billion cubic meters.
That increase does not contradict the forecast decline in nationwide marketable-gas output because it applies only to the SOCAR group rather than total production across Azerbaijan.
The budget calculations also project a 115,400-ton increase, or 5%, in diesel production. SOCAR’s tax payments to the state budget are forecast at 1.84 billion manats, about $1.08 billion.
All figures remain forecasts and could change during parliamentary consideration and implementation of the budget.