AZE.US
Armenia will need reliable transport links through Azerbaijan and Turkey if it wants to expand exports, reduce its dependence on Russia and secure a place in the emerging trade network of the South Caucasus, political analyst Ishkhan Verdyan said.
Speaking on the YouTube program Geopolitics with Barvinenko, Verdyan argued that the region’s economic and transport map is changing rapidly, opening opportunities that were considered unrealistic only a few years ago.
The discussion followed remarks by Tigran Petrosyan, head of Armenia’s food safety inspection agency, who said Armenian exports of fruit, vegetables and flowers to European markets were increasing. Petrosyan also announced preparations to send 50 trucks carrying apricots to a new export destination.
According to Verdyan, Russian restrictions on Armenian agricultural products have had the opposite of their intended effect by encouraging Armenian producers to search for alternative markets.
“It suddenly became clear that Armenian agricultural products are in demand around the world,” he said.
However, Verdyan stressed that access to European and international markets cannot be sustained without dependable overland routes.
“Yerevan will need strong and reliable transport connections through its immediate neighbors. Azerbaijan and Turkey can connect Armenia to a transcontinental belt of economic cooperation,” he said.
A Place in the Trans-Caspian Trade Network
Verdyan said Armenia should not view the expansion of Turkic-led transport routes as a threat to its sovereignty.
He argued that warnings about “Turan” or “pan-Turkism,” often repeated by parts of the Armenian opposition, distract from the potential economic benefits of regional integration.
“Armenia can and should have a fully sovereign place in this Trans-Caspian economic belt,” Verdyan said. “It should become the jewel of this corridor.”
In his view, closer economic ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey could give Armenia access to regional routes connecting the Black Sea, the Caspian basin, Central Asia and European markets.
Such integration, he added, would depend on normalized relations with neighboring countries and guarantees that Armenia’s sovereignty and domestic affairs would remain protected.
Baku Sees Less Need for Outside Mediators
Verdyan also discussed comments made during a meeting between Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Lavrov said Moscow was prepared to assist Azerbaijan and Armenia in reopening transport and economic links. Bayramov, however, stated that peace had already effectively been established between the two countries.
Verdyan interpreted the exchange as a signal that Baku no longer sees a major role for external mediators in the Azerbaijan-Armenia process.
He said Azerbaijan’s position reflected years of frustration with mediation formats that failed to produce results.
“Russia is trying to remain among the powers that influence the region, but today it is no longer able to impose decisions on Azerbaijan,” Verdyan said.
He added that the regional “3+3” platform, bringing together Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Turkey and Iran, could still be useful if it focused on trade and economic cooperation rather than political pressure.
Turkey Adds Armenia’s Customs Code
The program also addressed Turkey’s decision to add Armenia’s international customs code, 077, to its customs system.
The technical change could simplify the processing of goods linked to Armenia and Turkey, although it does not by itself amount to the full reopening of the land border.
Trade between Armenia and Turkey is currently estimated at about $335 million to $350 million, with officials and analysts discussing the possibility of increasing annual turnover to $1 billion.
Verdyan welcomed the move and said the next steps should include direct postal services and easier banking transfers between the two countries.
He noted that normalization between Armenia and Turkey remains closely connected to progress between Baku and Yerevan.
Russia’s Future Role
Verdyan said Russia could continue to play a major economic role in the South Caucasus, but only as a commercial partner rather than a power using energy, trade or transportation as political leverage.
He argued that Moscow could participate in regional infrastructure, electricity generation and transit projects if it accepted equal rules and respected the sovereignty of neighboring states.
For Armenia, he said, the strategic choice is not simply between Russia and the West. The more immediate priority is building diversified trade routes and stable relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Without those links, Armenia’s growing ambitions in European and global markets will remain limited.
AZE.US