AZE.US
Azerbaijan will not sign a peace treaty with Armenia unless the constitutional issue linked to territorial claims is resolved, political analyst Farhad Mammadov said on the YouTube channel Novosti Kavkaza.
Mammadov was commenting on the visit of Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to the president of Azerbaijan, to Armenia and his talks with Armen Grigoryan, secretary of Armenia’s Security Council.
According to the analyst, the visit itself was significant because it took place shortly after Armenia’s parliamentary elections and was held inside the region, not in a third country.
“This is, as I understand it, the first visit by an official representative of a foreign state to Armenia after the parliamentary elections. The significance is in the very fact of this visit,” Mammadov said.
He noted that the sides did not meet abroad, but directly in the South Caucasus. Another important element, he said, was that the land border was crossed.
Mammadov said the meeting showed that Baku and Yerevan are continuing direct communication and remain committed to the peace agenda.
According to him, after the elections in Armenia, the two sides needed to discuss the next steps in the process, including the possible referendum in Armenia, further border delimitation and demarcation, political dialogue and efforts to reduce the influence of external actors.
“The peace agenda has been developing according to its own logic. One of the important points was the parliamentary elections in Armenia, after which the next steps had to be discussed quickly,” he said.
Mammadov said the meeting in Dilijan demonstrated that the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia are still committed to the peace process.
At the same time, he criticized attempts by some Western experts and political circles to push the sides toward signing a peace agreement without taking into account the agreed logic of the process.
According to Mammadov, Baku and Yerevan must open their own “windows of opportunity” without outside pressure.
He said any attempt to pressure Azerbaijan would produce the opposite effect and could damage the peace process.
“Any action will create a counteraction and will have a negative impact on the peace process, which has its own dynamics, logic, mechanisms and tools for consultations,” Mammadov said.
The analyst stressed that the constitutional issue in Armenia remains a key condition for Azerbaijan.
He said Azerbaijan cannot sign a peace treaty while Armenia’s basic law still contains references that can be interpreted as territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
“No serious expert can say that someone can pressure Azerbaijan into signing a peace treaty without recognition of its territorial integrity and without removing from the constitution of another country the reference that this territory belongs to that country,” Mammadov said.
According to him, the current Armenian government itself understands that this issue must be addressed because Armenia was built for decades around the idea that Karabakh was part of Armenia’s political identity.
Mammadov said Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government is now trying to resolve this issue within the peace agenda with Azerbaijan.
He warned that outside pressure, statements by foreign experts and decisions by international institutions can affect public opinion in both countries, even if they do not directly change the situation on the ground.
“The main risk is not that this will practically affect decisions. There is peace on the ground. But it can change the public mood. And public mood is very important,” he said.
Mammadov said if resistance to the peace agenda grows inside Armenian society, it could complicate a possible referendum and slow down the entire process.
In that case, he said, the peace treaty would not be signed, communications would not be opened and Armenia would remain vulnerable to the influence of external powers, especially Russia and Iran.
Mammadov also commented on the TRIPP project and Iran’s possible reaction to it. He said Tehran is gradually formulating its position, but its main concern appears to be not Armenia’s sovereignty, but possible U.S. participation in an infrastructure project near the Iranian border.
“If Armenia’s sovereignty over the road is written into all documents, then Iran has no basis to speak about threats to territorial change,” he said.
According to Mammadov, the inclusion of Armenia in regional transport and economic projects serves Armenia’s own interests. Attempts to block these projects, he said, are effectively directed against Armenia’s interests.
He said the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia must continue through direct dialogue, without artificial deadlines, pressure or fears imposed from outside.
AZE.US