AZE.US
Azerbaijan should not rely on taxes, duties and fines as the main way to fill the state budget in the post-war period, economist and REAL party chairman Natig Jafarli said.
Writing on Facebook, Jafarli said Azerbaijan’s military victory in 2020 and 2023 created a new political and economic reality, but the country now faces a different challenge: winning the peace.
He argued that history offers many examples of states that won wars but later lost the peace because of weak economic policy, poor governance and unresolved social problems.
Jafarli cited the Soviet Union as one of the clearest examples. The USSR was among the victors of World War II, raised its flag in Berlin and controlled almost half of Europe, he wrote, but disappeared from history 45 years later because of a failed economic model and irrational governance.
According to Jafarli, Azerbaijan achieved a rare and historic military victory by restoring its territorial integrity, defeating separatism and securing sovereignty. He credited the victory to the determination of the commander-in-chief, the heroism of soldiers and officers, and the sacrifice of the Azerbaijani people.
But he said the next stage requires a different model.
“We must also win the period of peace,” Jafarli wrote, adding that Azerbaijan has effectively been living in a peace environment since August 8, 2025, while its military success has been followed by diplomatic gains.
Jafarli said the current governance and economic model does not fit the demands of the peace period. He pointed to three urgent areas where he believes reform is essential.
The first, he said, is restoring the sense of justice through reforms in the courts and law-enforcement agencies.
The second is a shift in economic thinking. Jafarli said the government should move away from a model that treats falling budget revenue as the main problem and tries to compensate for it through additional collection.
Instead, he argued, lower revenue should be seen as a result of weak growth and reduced economic activity. The focus, he said, should be on expansion, business activity and economic growth.
“Trying to increase budget revenues through taxes, duties and fines is the wrong path,” Jafarli wrote. “It further reduces economic activity, and as a result, the budget receives even less revenue.”
His third proposal concerns administrative reform.
Jafarli called for changing Azerbaijan’s administrative-territorial structure by turning the country’s 14 economic regions into the same number of administrative units. He also proposed abolishing local executive authorities and strengthening local self-government.
In his view, elected local bodies with real authority, responsibility and accountability should replace the current structure.
Jafarli said the list of needed steps could be longer, but described these three reforms as essential.
He argued that if Azerbaijan moves quickly, it can turn the post-war period into an opportunity and become an economic, logistics, tourism and scientific center of the region.
Azerbaijan’s geography is full of risks and possible crises, he said, but also full of opportunities.
AZE.US