Azerbaijan’s draft 2027 budget projects 1.42 billion manats in profit tax revenue from the Shah Deniz gas project, 180 million manats, or 11.3%, below the estimate for 2026.
The budget calculations also anticipate a modest decline in gas and condensate production at the field in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea.
Natural gas output is projected at 26.7 billion cubic meters in 2027, down 0.2 billion cubic meters, or 0.7%, from the current-year forecast. Condensate production is expected to fall by 500,000 barrels, or 1.7%, to 29.8 million barrels.
Lower Production and Gas Prices
The expected decline in profit tax revenue reflects more than projected production levels. The calculations also use a European hub gas price that is $30, or 6.8%, below the price assumed for 2026.
Compared with actual receipts in 2025, the projected 2027 Shah Deniz profit tax revenue would be 840.3 million manats, or 37.2%, lower.
During the first nine months of 2026, the Shah Deniz Alpha and Shah Deniz Bravo platforms produced about 20 billion standard cubic meters of gas and approximately 21 million barrels of condensate.
The figures are forecasts contained in the budget package under consideration by the Milli Majlis. They do not represent revenue already collected or final production results.
Sources: Vesti Baku; Report; BP production update reported by Report.