AZE.US
Ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Iran are increasing the strategic importance of the Middle Corridor, with Azerbaijan emerging as its central transport hub.
Farhad Mammadov, director of the Center for South Caucasus Studies and an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, made the remarks in an interview with the YouTube channel Modern Conversation with Rasim Babayev.
According to Mammadov, northern and southern transit routes are gradually losing their former appeal because of geopolitical instability, sanctions and security risks.
“Restoring even a quarter of the previous freight volumes along the northern route will be impossible over the next 10 to 15 years. The same applies to the southern route,” he said.
Against this backdrop, Central Asian and South Caucasus countries are strengthening cooperation and developing infrastructure along the Middle Corridor, which connects China with Europe across the Caspian Sea.
Mammadov said the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway project would be especially important. The new line is expected to generate additional freight that could reach the Caspian Sea through Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan before continuing westward through Azerbaijan.
The expert noted that the Middle Corridor now encompasses not only freight transportation but also energy, logistics and green energy projects. Although cargo volumes are rising more slowly than expected, efforts to connect the infrastructure of Central Asia and the South Caucasus are continuing.
“Azerbaijan effectively holds a dominant position in the Middle Corridor’s port infrastructure on the Caspian Sea, where routes from both the east and west converge,” Mammadov said.
Once cargo reaches Azerbaijan, it can be transported along several routes – through Georgia and Türkiye, through Armenia and Nakhchivan, or via Iran. This diversification allows Baku to offer partners different options depending on their political and economic priorities.
Mammadov argued that the weakening of Russia and Iran is also reducing their ability to obstruct the development of the East–West route. Both countries once possessed significant transit potential but are now losing part of it because of their policies and prolonged conflicts.
Meanwhile, the European Union, the United States and China all have an interest in developing the corridor. The more successfully Central Asian and South Caucasus countries preserve their sovereignty and coordinate their policies, the greater the confidence of international partners in the route will become, he concluded.
AZE.US