By AZE.US
Russia may oppose the planned TRIPP transit route through Armenia, but Moscow no longer has the tools to block its implementation, according to Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov. Iran, however, could still influence when construction begins.
Mammadov made the assessment during a discussion with Armenian political analyst Areg Kochinyan on Pressclubs TV, a joint media platform operated by the Baku and Yerevan press clubs.
“Russia may not like the project, but it is currently unable to prevent its implementation,” Mammadov said. “The real ability to influence the process remains with Iran.”
TRIPP, or the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, is expected to run through southern Armenia and connect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. The route could also become part of a broader East-West transportation network linking Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkey and Europe.
According to Mammadov, Russia would be unable to stop the project either by pressuring Armenia directly or through restrictions imposed by the Russian-managed South Caucasus Railway. This leaves relations between Yerevan and Tehran as the main external factor affecting the project’s timetable.
Iran has expressed concern about U.S. involvement in a transportation project close to its northern border. Kochinyan said Armenia is seeking to assure Tehran that TRIPP will not involve an American military or intelligence presence and will remain an economic and infrastructure initiative.
The continuing confrontation between the United States and Iran nevertheless increases the risks surrounding the project. Kochinyan said Tehran could potentially view even an American commercial or project-management presence near its border as a security concern.
At the same time, both analysts argued that the route could offer significant economic benefits to Iran.
Restoring railway connections through Nakhchivan and Armenia could give Iranian cargo additional access to Georgia and Black Sea ports. The railway could also be used for trade between Russia and Iran.
Another potential benefit would be a direct rail connection between Iran and Turkey through Nakhchivan, Armenia, Gyumri and Kars. The existing Iran-Turkey railway route is interrupted at Lake Van, where rail cars must be transported by ferry.
“No one has said that Russia and Iran would be prevented from using this railway to trade with each other,” Kochinyan said.
Mammadov noted that Iranian companies are already involved in infrastructure projects connected to the North-South corridor. Armenia and Iran are also discussing expanded economic activity near their shared border.
He said there were currently no clear signs that Tehran had created an insurmountable obstacle to the implementation of TRIPP.
The project is also moving toward its legal and practical stages. Armenia’s Constitutional Court is expected to determine whether the country’s commitments under the project comply with its constitution.
If the court approves the arrangement, the next steps would include establishing an Armenian-American company and forming the management structure of the TRIPP Development Company, according to Kochinyan.
On the Azerbaijani side, the railway has already reached Aghband, near the Armenian border. Mammadov estimated that only 3 to 4 kilometers remain between the current endpoint and the proposed border crossing.
Design work on the final section cannot be completed until the exact crossing point is agreed. Preparations will then be required for construction sites, equipment storage, land acquisition and logistics facilities.
Mammadov said preliminary work could begin by the end of 2026, with full construction potentially starting in spring 2027. Winter conditions in the mountainous area could limit large-scale infrastructure work.
The analysts’ assessment suggests that the project’s main external risk now comes from Tehran rather than Moscow. If Armenia and the United States can address Iran’s security concerns, TRIPP could develop into a transportation route offering economic benefits across the region, including to countries that currently view the project with suspicion.
AZE.US