AZE.US
Azerbaijan is unlikely to become directly involved in a potential military conflict surrounding Iran, but the risks of escalation remain significant, Russian political analyst Sergey Markedonov said.
Speaking on the YouTube channel Echo Baku, Markedonov noted that Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has traditionally been characterized by caution and strategic balancing among major powers.
“Baku has usually tried to avoid becoming part of large geopolitical confrontations,” said Markedonov, a leading researcher at MGIMO University and editor-in-chief of the journal International Analytics.
According to him, Azerbaijan has historically maintained working relations with several major actors simultaneously, including Russia, Turkey, the United States, Israel and Iran.
However, the current escalation in the Middle East could place new pressure on the South Caucasus.
“We are seeing the Middle East conflict expanding geographically,” Markedonov said. “Missiles and drones are already reaching Gulf states such as Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar.”
The analyst warned that instability in Iran could create serious security challenges for Azerbaijan.
Unlike distant powers such as the United States, Azerbaijan shares a long border with Iran and could be directly affected by any collapse of political authority in the country.
“If instead of one centralized power structure in Iran several competing centers emerge, that would be a very dangerous scenario for neighboring states,” he said.
Markedonov also pointed to possible risks including refugee flows and potential threats to energy infrastructure in the Caspian region.
At the same time, he stressed that Azerbaijan’s leadership has historically pursued a careful diplomatic approach designed to avoid direct participation in large-scale regional conflicts.
“I would estimate the probability of escalation involving Azerbaijan at roughly fifty-fifty,” he said, adding that the country still has strong incentives to avoid direct involvement.