AZE.US
The latest war of words between Baku and Yerevan following a visit by foreign diplomats to Karabakh is unlikely to freeze the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.
The episode has, however, exposed persistent mistrust and deep disagreements over historical and cultural heritage.
Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade, head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club, made the assessment during an appearance on the Echo Baku program.
The Dispute Goes Beyond a Single Visit
The controversy followed a tour by members of the diplomatic corps to Azerbaijan’s Karabakh and East Zangezur regions. Accompanied by Azerbaijani presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev, the diplomats visited religious monuments in the Kalbajar district.
Footage showing manuscripts prompted a particularly sharp reaction in Armenia. Armenian representatives alleged that the books displayed to visitors were not authentic historical manuscripts.
Velizade said the dispute should not be viewed solely as an argument over museum exhibits. In his assessment, it reflects a deeper clash of historical narratives that persists even after Yerevan recognized Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.
He also stressed that Azerbaijan has the right to organize visits by foreign delegations to any part of its internationally recognized territory, including churches and monasteries located there.
Peace Negotiations Do Not Depend on Trust
Despite the heated rhetoric, Velizade does not believe that the peace agenda between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been frozen.
Interstate negotiations, he argued, are not based on personal trust between leaders or mutual sympathy between societies. They depend on political circumstances, national interests and mechanisms that make compliance with agreements more advantageous than abandoning them.
“We trust actions and circumstances. Circumstances must be shaped so that a party takes one step rather than another,” Velizade said.
According to the analyst, Baku primarily evaluates Yerevan’s practical actions. Statements supporting peace cannot by themselves remove accumulated mistrust if structures, symbols or rhetoric associated with the previous separatist agenda remain in place.
Why the Peace Agenda Is Likely to Continue
Velizade identified several factors that will continue pushing both countries toward negotiations.
Azerbaijan is interested in restoring transport links with Nakhchivan and developing new regional routes. Armenia needs peace to open borders, expand economic integration and normalize relations with Turkey.
Ankara also supports a regional settlement, while Washington has an interest in implementing the agreements reached with its involvement and advancing the TRIPP project. European states, meanwhile, want stronger transport connectivity with the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
These political and economic interests, Velizade said, will help preserve the peace process even in the absence of mutual trust.
Yerevan May Seek to Ease the Tension
The analyst pointed to statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan supporting an end to the activities of remaining structures linked to the former separatist entity.
Velizade also cited contacts between representatives of Baku and Yerevan after the dispute began. In his assessment, the Armenian side sought to lower tensions and prevent the information conflict from spilling into the official negotiating process.
“This is an unpleasant episode, but it will most likely not develop into a long-term trend. No one is interested in that,” he said.
Civil-Society Dialogue Could Be Paused
The situation may be more difficult at the civil-society level. The Azerbaijani and Armenian groups participating in the Bridge of Peace initiative exchanged strongly worded statements, revealing sharply different interpretations of the cultural-heritage dispute.
Velizade said that amid heightened emotions, further meetings could turn into an unproductive exchange of accusations. Under such conditions, civil-society dialogue may need to be paused until the participants can return to discussing practical solutions.
The controversy could therefore interrupt public diplomacy without necessarily stopping the formal peace process.
Turkey and the United States Remain Key Partners
Velizade rejected speculation that Baku might abandon its independent course and reach a tactical agreement with Moscow against Yerevan.
He said Azerbaijan is pursuing its own regional policy. Turkey remains Baku’s principal partner on transport connectivity and the peace agenda, while the United States also plays an important role through the Washington agreements and the TRIPP project.
Armenia, he added, has little interest in opening a new confrontation with Azerbaijan. Without normalization with Baku, Yerevan would find it extremely difficult to achieve a full opening of its border and build sustainable relations with Ankara.
The dispute over manuscripts and monasteries is therefore a serious sign of unresolved tensions. Political realities, however, continue to favor the preservation of the peace agenda.
AZE.US