The Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process needs practical results, including movement toward a constitutional referendum in Armenia and the start of work on the TRIPP transport project, political analyst Farhad Mammadov said.
Delays in infrastructure decisions could weaken the South Caucasus in competition for international transit traffic, Mammadov said during an appearance on the “News From the Caucasus” program.
He identified two measures by which progress should be judged: removing what Baku views as a constitutional obstacle to signing a peace treaty and creating a transport link through Armenian territory.
Referendum as a Political Test
Mammadov said Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had narrowed the timetable for a possible referendum, indicating that he would seek to hold it in 2027 or 2028. The first substantive signal, Mammadov said, would be the publication of a draft constitution and the start of public discussion, followed by talks with the parliamentary opposition to obtain the necessary support.
For Baku, he said, a referendum would have significance beyond the legal process because it would show whether Armenian society supports renouncing territorial claims.
Mammadov said Pashinyan’s electoral victory is interpreted differently in Azerbaijan. Some regard it as support for the peace agenda, while others point to turnout and voter motivations, arguing that backing the governing party alone does not settle the Karabakh issue.
“The referendum must put the final seal on this issue,” Mammadov said.
TRIPP Must Reach the Construction Stage
Mammadov described the transition to construction of TRIPP as the second test. Reports about companies being created and documents being coordinated do not substitute for visible work on the ground, he said.
He noted Armenia’s stated intention to begin designing the railway, highway and power line through government agencies before transferring the results to the project company.
“There is political will recorded in documents, there is money, and there is infrastructure capacity to implement all of this. We need to hurry and start digging, building and laying rails,” he said.
Mammadov said speed matters because competition among transport routes is increasing. U.S. interest in Central Asian resources creates opportunities for the South Caucasus, but the region’s advantage will not necessarily last indefinitely. A change in relations between Washington and Moscow could also affect logistics, he said.
“The exclusivity of our region may change at some point,” Mammadov warned.
He did not claim that the rules governing the passage of Azerbaijani citizens and freight through TRIPP had been finalized. He said only that he had not seen public signals of serious dissatisfaction from Baku over that aspect of the project.