AZE.US
Azerbaijani political analyst Eldar Namazov has said Russia currently poses a greater risk than Iran to the peace process in the South Caucasus, arguing that Moscow is trying to preserve its fading regional influence by keeping tensions alive between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Speaking on the YouTube channel Novosti Kavkaza, Namazov said Russia understands that Azerbaijan is no longer dependent on Moscow and is pursuing an independent foreign policy, while Armenia is also gradually moving away from Russia’s orbit.
“Today, Russia is more dangerous,” Namazov said. “Russia feels that it is losing the South Caucasus.”
He said Moscow’s recent behavior shows that it is no longer hiding its discomfort with the post-war regional order. Namazov pointed to Russian statements suggesting that the Karabakh conflict is not fully over, Russian television maps showing Karabakh separately from Azerbaijan, and contacts involving figures linked to the former separatist structure in Karabakh.
According to Namazov, Russia has long been described as a power that supports “the conflict itself” rather than either Armenia or Azerbaijan. But he argued that this is no longer just a political joke.
“Russia has openly stepped onto the geopolitical road with a sign saying it wants to revive the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” he said.
Namazov said Iran remains a long-term threat to Azerbaijan, but Tehran is currently preoccupied with its own internal and external problems. Russia, by contrast, is acting more aggressively because it sees its position in the South Caucasus weakening.
He also linked Moscow’s regional posture to the war in Ukraine, saying the Kremlin needs external confrontation to maintain domestic mobilization. If the war in Ukraine slows or stops, he suggested, Moscow could look for another pressure point, including in the South Caucasus.
Namazov also discussed Armenia’s political future, saying the outcome of upcoming elections could determine whether Yerevan continues on a path toward peace or falls back under the influence of revanchist forces.
He said Armenia under its current government does not represent a direct military threat to Azerbaijan. But he added that Baku is closely watching which forces gain ground in Yerevan and which outside powers are trying to shape Armenian politics.
“There is no direct and obvious threat from Armenia to Azerbaijan under the current government,” Namazov said. “That does not mean such a threat cannot emerge in the future.”
Namazov said Azerbaijan has learned the lessons of the Karabakh conflict and will not allow a new threat to form near its borders.
AZE.US