AZE.US
The future of Russian influence in the South Caucasus and across the former Soviet space will largely depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian journalist and political commentator Vitaly Portnikov has said, speaking to 1inTVAfrmenia.
According to Portnikov, the prolonged conflict has demonstrated that Russia is unable to achieve its objectives quickly. Several post-Soviet leaders are now taking advantage of Moscow’s weakened position and adopting a more assertive tone in their dealings with the Kremlin.
During the interview, the host pointed to recent statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
Portnikov cautioned, however, that the growing independence of post-Soviet governments could prove temporary and would ultimately depend on Russia’s strength after the war.
“If the war ends successfully for Russia, the post-Soviet space will once again become Moscow’s sphere of influence, even considering the interests of other players. If Russia fails to subjugate Ukraine, it will lose control over the post-Soviet space, regardless of what measures it later takes in the South Caucasus or Central Asia,” he said.
Portnikov argued that regional leaders are currently using Russia’s weakness to pursue more independent policies but could change their behavior if Moscow regains its former strength.
“We should focus not on what these leaders are saying today, but on what they will do tomorrow. Their actions will depend on Russia’s weight and role after the war,” he said.
The commentator described the former Soviet region as a hostage to the Russia-Ukraine war, saying that it now effectively “revolves around the Ukrainian axis.”
Portnikov also warned that Russia’s expansionist ambitions may survive President Vladimir Putin’s eventual departure from power. He said Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Armenia, Kazakhstan and other countries in the region should strengthen their state institutions and security capabilities.
“If each of these nations understands that it must defend itself and build a strong state, especially in terms of security, it will have an important chance of survival, even if that chance is not particularly large,” Portnikov concluded.
AZE.US