By AZE.US Editorial Team
The Treaty on Eternal Friendship is more than a diplomatic slogan. Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are building a transport and economic bridge between Central Asia, the Caspian and Europe. Its real strength, however, will be measured in cargo, investment and production, not declarations.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s state visit to Uzbekistan showed that relations between Baku and Tashkent have moved beyond traditional appeals to shared history and Turkic brotherhood.
Cultural affinity is now being converted into practical geopolitics.
Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan signed a Treaty on Eternal Friendship, adopted a program to increase bilateral trade to $1 billion by 2030 and approved a roadmap for investment projects. The agreements cover trade, energy, banking, mining, tourism, culture and social protection.
Speaking on ITV, Azerbaijani political analyst Eldar Namazov described the rapprochement as part of a much larger process: the emergence of a new center of power connecting Central Asia with the South Caucasus.
There is substance behind that assessment. What is taking shape is no longer merely a bilateral partnership.
Azerbaijan Is Becoming Central Asia’s Western Gateway
Geography has long separated Azerbaijan from Central Asia. The Caspian Sea stands between them, while the region’s major transport networks were historically directed north through Russia.
That structure is now changing.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan need additional access to global markets. Azerbaijan offers a route across the Caspian, through Baku, Georgia and Türkiye, and onward to Europe.
This gives Azerbaijan strategic importance far beyond the size of its territory or population. Baku does not control the entire Middle Corridor, but without Azerbaijani ports, railways and transit infrastructure, the route cannot become a serious alternative to the northern corridor.
For Central Asia, Azerbaijan is increasingly becoming a gateway to the West.
Uzbekistan can give this emerging system greater economic weight. It is Central Asia’s most populous country, with nearly 40 million people, a rapidly expanding industrial sector and a growing domestic market.
The planned China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway could provide Tashkent with a stronger east-west connection. Goods would then move through Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan, cross the Caspian, enter Azerbaijan and continue toward Türkiye and Europe.
The result is an emerging Eurasian route:
China – Central Asia – Caspian Sea – Azerbaijan – Türkiye – Europe.
Baku and Tashkent Share a Strategy of Autonomy
There is another important reason for the rapid growth of Azerbaijani-Uzbek relations.
Both countries pursue foreign policies built around strategic autonomy. Neither Azerbaijan nor Uzbekistan belongs to the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union or remains an active member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Both cooperate with Russia, China, Türkiye, the European Union and the United States, while avoiding excessive dependence on any single center of power.
That makes them natural partners.
Baku gains a major ally in Central Asia. Tashkent secures a reliable route toward the Caspian, South Caucasus, Türkiye and Europe. Ankara expands its economic and political reach eastward, while Western countries gain access to another transport corridor that bypasses Russia and Iran.
The Baku-Tashkent partnership should therefore not be reduced to Turkic solidarity. A common history and related languages make cooperation easier, but economics, logistics and overlapping national interests are now the real driving forces.
Friendship Is Being Converted Into Capital
The relationship is acquiring a material foundation.
The Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan Investment Company, established in 2023, has capital of $500 million. Azerbaijani and Uzbek companies are developing projects in banking, energy, construction, education, mining and agriculture.
SOCAR plans to open five filling stations in Uzbekistan. Azerbaijan’s ABB is pursuing the acquisition of a 51% stake in Uzbekistan’s Davr Bank. The broader portfolio includes oil and gas exploration, silver ore processing, construction materials, schools, tourism and housing.
Bilateral trade reached $795 million in 2025, more than three times the previous year’s level. Trade totaled $144 million in the first five months of 2026, up 33% year over year.
The two governments have now adopted a formal program to increase trade to $1 billion by 2030.
That target raises an obvious question: If trade had already approached $800 million in 2025, is $1 billion by 2030 ambitious enough?
The issue may lie not only in the total figure but in the structure of trade. A sharp annual increase can be driven by several large contracts without producing a stable commercial relationship.
Real success will come when bilateral trade is supported by hundreds of companies, regular cargo movements and long-term production chains rather than isolated transactions.
Karabakh Became a Symbol of Trust
Uzbekistan was among the first countries to participate in the reconstruction of Azerbaijan’s liberated territories.
It financed the Mirzo Ulugbek School in Fuzuli, while Uzbek investment helped establish a major garment factory in Khankendi. These were economic projects, but they also carried an unmistakable political message.
Tashkent demonstrated its support through physical investment rather than statements alone.
Baku is responding with Azerbaijani investment in Uzbekistan’s banking, energy and industrial sectors. Cooperation is becoming reciprocal and institutional, making it less dependent on political ceremonies or short-term circumstances.
The Middle Corridor Will Be the Real Test
Signing agreements is easier than building a competitive transport system.
The Middle Corridor continues to face serious constraints, including repeated cargo transfers, limited shipping capacity on the Caspian, inconsistent tariffs, customs delays and weak coordination among railway and port operators.
If a container spends days waiting for a vessel or customs clearance, political declarations cannot make the route competitive.
Baku and Tashkent therefore need more than general agreements. They need coordinated tariffs, digital documentation, guaranteed delivery schedules, dedicated port capacity and an operator capable of managing shipments across the entire route.
The Treaty on Eternal Friendship will acquire historic significance only if it produces a sustained movement of goods, investment, technology and people.
Not Yet a New Bloc, but Already a New Network
It would be premature to declare the emergence of a fully formed geopolitical bloc.
The Organization of Turkic States is not an equivalent of the European Union or a military alliance. Its members maintain different relationships with Russia, China and the West and do not always share identical interests.
Yet a regional network is developing that major powers can no longer ignore.
It does not have to be directed against Moscow, Beijing, Tehran or Brussels. Its primary purpose is to give the countries of the region more transport routes, more economic partners and greater freedom of choice.
That is the real value of the Baku-Tashkent axis.
Azerbaijan connects Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe. Uzbekistan provides population, industry and a growing market. Kazakhstan adds transit capacity, while Türkiye provides access to the Mediterranean and European economies.
Aliyev’s visit to Tashkent marked an important stage in that process. But history will not be made by the signing ceremony itself.
It will begin when stable cargo flows cross the Caspian, the joint investment fund finances dozens of functioning enterprises, and bilateral trade rises not only above $1 billion but eventually reaches several billion dollars.
For now, Baku and Tashkent are not creating a new center of power. They are laying its foundation.
Whether the broader Turkic space can evolve from a powerful political idea into a genuine economic force will depend on the strength of that foundation.
AZE.US