AZE.US
Azerbaijan has little reason to base its regional policy on Russia, which has repeatedly shifted its positions and proven to be an unreliable partner, political analyst Azad Isazade said.
Speaking on the Echo Baku YouTube channel, Isazade argued that Azerbaijan had navigated the most difficult stages of the Karabakh conflict without Russian support and now enjoys greater freedom of action.
“Why should Azerbaijan rely on Russia’s position when Moscow has repeatedly changed its stance in our recent history and acted as an unreliable ally?” he said. “We passed through the most difficult periods without Russia and now feel freer in our decisions.”
According to Isazade, Azerbaijan’s growing ties with Central Asian countries, closer cooperation among Turkic states and the development of the Middle Corridor may also be viewed negatively by Moscow.
At the same time, he said Baku is not interested in political or economic instability in Armenia. A stable neighboring country, he argued, would make it easier to open transport links and expand regional cooperation.
Isazade said Armenia will eventually have to make a strategic choice between maintaining its place in the Eurasian Economic Union and pursuing closer integration with the European Union. Attempts to preserve the advantages of both directions can only continue for a limited period, he added.
“We need clarity, and we have to move forward,” the analyst said.
Commenting on the recent phone call between the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, Isazade stressed that no reliable information about the substance of the conversation had been made public.
He suggested that Vladimir Putin may have raised Azerbaijan’s energy cooperation with Europe, Baku’s expanding relationship with Ukraine, attacks on SOCAR facilities in Ukraine and the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Isazade also suggested that Russia may be interested in slowing the signing of a peace agreement and the opening of regional transport routes, though he emphasized that this remained speculation.
The analyst was skeptical of claims that Moscow might have asked Baku to increase military pressure on Armenia. He said current relations between Azerbaijan and Russia were not close enough for the Kremlin to expect compliance with such a sensitive request.
“Even if such a request was made, I am more inclined to believe that Azerbaijan rejected it, or would have rejected it, rather than agreed,” Isazade said.
AZE.US