AZE.US
Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections could become a decisive moment for the future of peace with Azerbaijan and the wider balance in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijani diplomat and analyst Farid Shafiyev said.
Shafiyev, chairman of the Center of Analysis of International Relations and a former Azerbaijani ambassador, said the 2026 vote is more consequential than Armenia’s 2021 elections because the regional context has changed sharply.
At that time, the Karabakh issue was still on the agenda, Russian peacekeepers were deployed in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, and Armenia had not yet made a clear move toward a peace agreement with Baku.
Now, he said, Armenia faces two major questions at once: whether it will continue moving closer to the European Union and whether it will finalize peace with Azerbaijan.
“Peace with Azerbaijan would mean that there is no conflict in the South Caucasus and that this instrument no longer exists,” Shafiyev said, referring to the long-standing use of regional conflict as a lever of influence.
According to Shafiyev, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is still likely to win the election, although he warned that Armenia may face unrest after the vote, especially once official results are announced. He said opposition forces may reject the results and accuse the authorities of falsification.
The key issue for Azerbaijan, Shafiyev said, is not only whether Armenia’s government says it recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Baku wants the Armenian public itself to confirm that position through constitutional change.
He said Yerevan is unlikely to present the issue directly as a referendum on giving up territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Instead, it will probably be framed as a vote on a new constitution, with several domestic and foreign-policy questions included.
For Azerbaijan, however, the substance matters more than the wording.
Shafiyev said Baku needs to know that any move away from territorial claims is not simply the decision of one Armenian government that could be replaced in five years, but the expressed will of Armenian society.
If Pashinyan’s party secures a constitutional majority, Shafiyev said, the path would be relatively clear: a constitutional referendum, removal of the provisions that concern Azerbaijan, and movement toward a peace treaty.
If Pashinyan remains in power but does not obtain such a majority, the process may slow down. Shafiyev said the Armenian government could still try to build support through coalitions or political bargaining, but the constitutional process would likely face delays.
A defeat for Pashinyan would create a very different scenario, he said. In that case, peace with Azerbaijan would become unlikely, and Armenia could remain isolated, with hostile relations toward both Azerbaijan and Türkiye.
Shafiyev also commented on Russia’s role in the region, saying Moscow had often relied on conflict rather than cooperation as a way to maintain influence in the South Caucasus.
He said the settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict would remove one of the key instruments previously used to manage the region from the outside.
Asked about Azerbaijan’s broader foreign policy, Shafiyev said Baku’s priorities remain clear: peace with Armenia, allied relations with Türkiye, trade and economic ties with neighboring states, closer engagement with Central Asia, and work on a new agreement with the European Union.
He said Azerbaijan would continue a multi-vector policy, though he preferred to describe it not as “equidistant,” but as “equally close” diplomacy, with Baku expanding cooperation in several directions at once.
AZE.US