AZE.US
Armenia could be left without meaningful security guarantees if Russia fully withdraws its military presence from the country, according to Arman Grigoryan, a professor of political science at Lehigh University.
Speaking to CivilNet, Grigoryan said many Armenians mistakenly assume that Russia’s departure would automatically bring the country closer to Europe and secure stronger Western protection.
“We think that if the Russians pack up everything they have and leave, we will find ourselves in some kind of European paradise,” he said.
“But there will be no such guarantees from the West, and we will remain highly vulnerable against Azerbaijan and Turkey.”
Grigoryan argued that Armenia’s current foreign policy should no longer be described simply as diversification. In his view, diversification would mean preserving existing alliances while adding new partners. Instead, he said, Yerevan is moving toward a broader change in its strategic orientation.
According to the analyst, Moscow sees Armenia’s growing cooperation with the European Union and other Western institutions as part of a long-term process that could eventually push Russia out of Armenia and weaken its position in the South Caucasus.
He acknowledged that Russia’s failure to respond decisively during the Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes in 2022 severely damaged Moscow’s reputation as an ally. However, he cautioned against assuming that Russia would also remain passive if Armenia itself faced a larger military threat.
Grigoryan also emphasized the role of Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Armenia.
He said the base is not large enough to independently stop a major attack. Its main purpose, however, is to ensure that any strike on Armenia involving Russian troops would draw Moscow directly into the conflict.
The political scientist said Armenia has the right to seek new partners and reconsider its foreign policy, but warned that such decisions must be based on realistic assessments rather than expectations of rapid Western security guarantees.
Western countries may provide Armenia with political support, observers and diplomatic assistance, he said, but that does not mean they are prepared to enter a military confrontation with Azerbaijan or Turkey on Armenia’s behalf.
AZE.US