AZE.US
Azerbaijani political analyst Ahmad Alili has said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Yerevan could create new complications for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process if Baku’s concerns are not fully addressed.
Speaking on the “Novosti Kavkaza” YouTube channel, Alili said the visit should be viewed not only as a diplomatic event, but also as part of a wider political contest around Armenia.
He said Armenia’s election campaign is no longer just a domestic process. It is being watched closely in Moscow, Brussels, Washington and Baku.
According to Alili, the initialing of a document between the United States and Armenia shows that Washington does not want to fall behind Europe and Russia in the Armenian direction.
But he said the central issue for Azerbaijan is not the visit itself, but the content and format of the document.
Alili said Baku would want its position to be taken into account more clearly, especially on security guarantees, transport arrangements and unhindered access to Nakhchivan.
He noted that the idea of the Zangezur route originally emerged in the trilateral framework after the November 10, 2020 statement. In his view, the Russian factor was later replaced by an American one, while the basic substance of the route remained linked to earlier understandings.
If Yerevan and Washington treat the issue only as a bilateral matter, Alili said, merely informing Baku is not enough.
One sensitive point, he said, concerns the possible role of Armenian border guards. If they can intervene in the route’s operation, inspect the operator or introduce additional procedures, the principle of unhindered movement may be weakened.
For Azerbaijan, Alili said, that principle remains central.
He also suggested that Baku may have preferred to discuss some of the disputed points after Armenia’s elections, avoiding the appearance of direct pressure on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during the campaign.
The accelerated initialing of the document, he said, could therefore create problems later for the peace process.
Alili said Azerbaijan still has two key conditions: unhindered access to Nakhchivan and changes to provisions in Armenia’s Constitution that Baku views as an obstacle to a final peace agreement.
He said Azerbaijan is unlikely to abandon either of those demands.
The analyst also said Armenia remains an “open case” because internal political processes there can be followed through media, social networks and public debate. By contrast, he described Russia and Iran as more closed systems, where authorities are trying to restrict access to information and control domestic developments.
Speaking about the broader regional picture, Alili said the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process has moved forward, but has not yet reached its final stage.
He said Baku would like to see a clearer common position from Yerevan against outside decisions and resolutions that could harm the peace track.
Much will now depend on Azerbaijan’s reaction to the U.S.-Armenia document, Alili said. Even the absence of a public reaction from Baku, he added, could itself become a political signal.
AZE.US