AZE.US
Azerbaijani lawmaker Erkin Gadirli says Russia has entered a strategic trap in Ukraine because Moscow no longer appears able to clearly define what victory would look like.
Speaking on Azerbaijan’s ITV channel, the Milli Majlis member said Ukraine’s objective is straightforward: to remove Russian occupying forces from its sovereign territory and restore control over its internationally recognized borders.
“For Ukraine, victory means the withdrawal of Russia’s occupying forces from Ukraine’s sovereign territories and full control over its own lands,” Gadirli said.
He argued that this clarity gives Kyiv a political and moral advantage. Russia, by contrast, began the war with goals such as taking Kyiv, changing the government and imposing what Moscow called “denazification,” but failed to achieve them.
“What can victory mean for Russia? Russia does not know,” Gadirli said.
According to Gadirli, Russia has annexed occupied territories through referendums that the world does not recognize and will not recognize. He said Moscow is now trying to hold devastated areas that it cannot fully turn into a sustainable political or military success.
Gadirli drew a comparison with the former Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territories. He said Azerbaijan, even when it was the weaker side for many years, always knew what it wanted: to liberate its occupied lands and restore control over its legal borders.
Armenia, he argued, faced the opposite problem after occupying Azerbaijani territories. It expelled the population and destroyed settlements, but never clearly resolved what it intended to do with those lands – whether to formally annex them, settle them, incorporate them into Armenia or secure recognition for a separate entity.
“Russia has fallen into the same trap in Ukraine,” Gadirli said. “Ukraine knows very well what it wants. Russia does not.”
He also said the West has limited room for maneuver. Western countries do not want direct military involvement in the war and are not sending their own troops, but ending support for Ukraine would effectively mean sacrificing Ukraine to Russia and siding with the aggressor.
Gadirli said that would damage the reputation of Western countries and weaken their broader position.
The discussion also touched on Europe’s security fears. Participants noted that a Ukrainian setback caused by declining Western support could strengthen Russia and increase pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.
For Gadirli, however, the central issue is the political logic of the war. Ukraine is defending its own territory and has a clear strategic goal. Russia, despite its military resources and territorial seizures, has failed to define a realistic end state that could be presented as victory.
AZE.US